NEW PUBLICATION: Demographic Change and Its Economic Implications for Colombia (coord.)

This article characterizes Colombia’s demographic transition, analyzes its recent evolution, and projects its long-term trends to assess their implications for economic growth, monetary policy transmission, CO₂ emissions, and the provision and financing of public goods. The analysis adopts a regional perspective and draws on the latest population projections from Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics, the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, and alternative demographic scenarios based on different assumptions regarding fertility and mortality. The results indicate that rapid population aging will reduce potential growth, alter the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, and increase pressures on public finances, particularly through the health and pension systems, while also creating opportunities to reallocate education spending. The findings further highlight substantial regional disparities, underscoring the need for place-based policy responses, and confirm that, in the absence of structural reforms, the demographic transition poses a significant challenge to fiscal sustainability and long-term economic growth. The article evaluates policy options aimed at increasing labor force participation, strengthening productivity and human capital, improving the efficiency of the health system, adjusting the statutory retirement age, and reallocating public resources to reflect the new demographic structure. These policies have the potential to mitigate the economic and fiscal consequences of population aging. Ensayos sobre Política Económica

Gender Inequality and Demographic Change: Implications for Long-Run Growth (with Alejandro Sarasti and Luz A. Florez)

This study examines Colombia’s demographic transition through a gender lens and its implications for long-run economic growth. Drawing on census data, vital statistics, and international comparisons, we document demographic changes as well as gender gaps across the life cycle. The findings reveal a rapid demographic transition marked by an open window of opportunity associated with the demographic dividend, whose full potential remains constrained by gender inequalities. On the one hand, men exhibit high excess mortality during their prime working ages, reducing the stock of human capital and shrinking the labour supply. On the other hand, women continue to face barriers that constrain their labour market participation. Following Lagerlöf (2003), in which women bear the opportunity costs of child-rearing, we replicate the dynamics of fertility, population growth, and income per capita over the period 1905–2024. The simulations suggest that greater gender equality fosters human capital accumulation, leading to higher and more sustained economic growth. The study highlights the importance of policies that promote gender equality, redistribute care responsibilities, and expand female labour market inclusion as key strategies to maximise the benefits of the demographic dividend and mitigate the fiscal and economic pressures associated with population ageing in Colombia.